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This weekend the NFL is concluding its annual draft. Up to 255 college football players will be distributed over three days across the 32 NFL teams. In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell made the decision to go ahead with the draft on its originally scheduled dates—albeit in a modified (virtual) form. NFL scouts had the entire 2019 college football season to evaluate prospects. The NFL Combine, another opportunity to see select recruits in action, went ahead as planned at the start of the year, and recruits are still available for online interviews.
Despite all this, the online draft will certainly not be the same. Apart from the lost entertainment value—NFL draft fashion has become a much-watched spectacle in recent years—there are concerns about potential technical challenges. The draft will be conducted via the league’s encrypted Microsoft Teams draft channel. All parties will also be dialled into a conference call that will last the duration of the draft. Picks will be announced over the call. If the Microsoft Teams channel is not working, teams can also use the conference call line to announce their selections. Or they can call someone on Goodell’s team directly. Goodell will be overseeing the whole process—from his basement in Westchester, NY.
Participants have also expressed concern about the reduced information flow in a virtual draft. “General managers are concerned that, in this current environment, with offseason activities cancelled and some teams' facilities closed, there won't be enough time for player physicals, gathering psychological testing, getting further verified information about the players and some teams having to conduct the draft from home,” ESPN reported. There is also concern that talented players who would normally get picked in the draft may not get a shot this year. Each year roughly 30 to 40 college players who were not invited to the NFL Combine end up being drafted; given the lack of opportunity for scouts to see these players this year, this number is likely to drop dramatically.
Prospects from small schools are being hurt even more. The first ever HBCU Combine was cancelled, many college pro days were cancelled, and with the NFL cancelling in-person interviews the hurdles faced by HBCU and other small school prospects are higher. We may not see a Steve McNair (Alcorn State, No. 3 pick) or a Jerry Rice (Mississippi Valley State, No. 16 pick) this year. Players like Carson Wentz (North Dakota State) and Ryan Schrader (Valdosta State) may face similarly bleak odds. Players looking to switch positions are also at a disadvantage—Julian Edelman played quarterback during college, but Coach Bill Belichick got to see Edelman in action at Kent State’s pro day and was so impressed by his speed that he drafted him as a wide receiver. Edelman went on to become one of the most celebrated wide receivers in NFL history with three Super Bowl wins (and one Super Bowl MVP) and nearly 600 receptions.
However, the NFL relies on new talent, and so the draft goes on. For NFL teams, the acquisition of talent for positions both on and off the field is critical. Groysberg, Hecht, and Naik analysed a 38-year panel dataset of win-loss records for NFL teams in each season and found that “combined leadership explained a remarkably high proportion of the success or failure of each team.” Just four leadership variables–quarterback, coach, general manager, and owner–explained 68.2 percent of variance in team performance across the data set. Of that explained variance, Quarterbacks (37.37 percent of explained variance) accounted for more than three times the variance compared to owners (11.12 percent). Coaches accounted for 29.08 percent of explained variance, and general managers accounted for 22.43 percent. One can note that though quarterbacks are clearly the most important, given that they represent on-field leadership in an offence driven league, managers and coaches account for more than half the explained variance.
More than 60 percent of starting quarterbacks during the 2019 season were acquired by their current teams through the draft; the remainder were acquired via trades or as free agents. The NFL instituted unrestricted free agency on March 1, 1993. Prior to this, under “Plan B,” a team could protect 37 of its players with the right of first refusal. The plan also restricted player compensation. But this all changed when a jury found the NFL’s then free agency system to be unfair. Today any player with four complete seasons (or more) and an expired contract is considered to be an unrestricted free agent.
The 2020 free agency is notable for the veritable glut of quarterbacks that became free agents: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Joe Flacco, Eli Manning, Cam Newton, Philip Rivers, Teddy Bridgewater, Dak Prescott, Jameis Winston, Ryan Tannehill, Marcus Mariota, and Case Keenum amongst others. Many have already found new homes—Tom Brady signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Philip Rivers signed with the Indianapolis Colts; others re-signed with their home teams, such as Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints and Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys. A few like Cam Newton (injury concerns) and Jameis Winston (accuracy issues) are unsigned, whereas Eli Manning chose to retire for a lack of suitors. This is a classic case of excess supply vs. demand in the market but at a position that is the most critical leadership position for an NFL team.
Tom Brady, the six-time super bowl champion widely considered the NFL’s Greatest of All Time (GOAT), signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, after the New England Patriots and Brady were unable to reach a deal. Brady, who turned 42 in August, wanted to continue playing into his mid-40s, but Belichick and the Patriots were reportedly only willing to offer Brady a one-year contract.
A similar case occurred with Cam Newton with the Carolina Panthers. Under new ownership since 2018, Carolina is undergoing an organizational overhaul. Long-term coach Ron Rivera was fired and Matt Rhule was hired as the new head coach. Newton, having started only two games all last season, was in the last year on his contract. With his injury concerns, Carolina looked to trade him and get a fresh start at quarterback, but found no takers given injury concerns, their high asking price, and the supply of quality quarterbacks on the market. Given that cutting Newton would free up $19 million in space in salary cap terms and would cost the Panthers only $2 million in dead money, it made sense for Carolina to release Newton.
Assessing quarterback value
Unsurprisingly, the QB position generally generates the most buzz during free agency, and rarely have so many starting quality quarterbacks entered free agency at the same time. What has been the effect of free agency on quarterback value, in terms of their contribution to team wins? We divided our 38-year panel dataset into two parts: 1981-1992 and 1993-2018. We conducted variance decomposition analysis in the manner of Groysberg, Hecht, and Naik and we found that since free agency, quarterback contribution of explained variance of winning has increased significantly (+7.17 percent). By contrast coach and owner contribution has decreased by 4.35 percent and 3.41 percent respectively. The GM importance has surprisingly risen albeit slightly (+0.59 percent).
There are several possible reasons for the increase in quarterback importance to explained variance. Since free agency, the quarterback’s requisite skill set has undoubtedly increased. The quarterback position requires significant preparation—a quarterback needs to know not only how to do his own job but also, “he has to know the responsibilities of every player out on the field with him. Whether it's blocking assignments from the offensive lineman and running backs, option routes and hot reads from the tight ends or receivers, defensive keys and tendencies, quarterbacks have to be able to hold their teammates accountable, and they can only do that if they're in tune with what each player is supposed to be doing,” explains Chiefs Reporter, BJ Kissel. Speed of information processing, physical skills, and the need to deal with the media are other skills required by the modern QB. The QB job is also made more difficult as teams chop and change their rosters more frequently in the era of free agency. The average team lets go 38.5 percent of its roster during the off-season meaning that a quarterback could be working with a completely new cast every year.
For teams looking to hire a QB, finding someone who fits the bill is not an easy task. Assessing past performance is one thing but determining how the player will perform going forward and in new circumstances (e.g., a new team) is a greater challenge. Given that QBs depend on their teammates—receivers, running backs and offensive linemen among others—to do their job, there are significant risks involved in hiring these players. Their fit within a team matters.
Groysberg, Sant, and Abrahams looked at this question of how NFL player performance was impacted by changing teams—focusing particularly on wide receivers and punters. They found that while punters saw no change in performance after switching teams, wide receivers saw a decline in their number of receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. Given that a punter’s task (kicking the ball) is almost entirely reliant on his own strength and skill, and a wide receiver’s tasks are “governed by complex interactions with teammates,” these results are not necessarily surprising. Also worth noting—those wide receivers who switched teams and experienced a subsequent decline in performance saw that performance stabilize after only a year, suggesting that after an adjustment period “the team-specific human capital that had been lost with the move could be rebuilt at the new team.”
Is there a way to reduce the performance risk associated with changing teams? Yes; bring your teammates along with you. Tom Brady signed a two-year, $50 million deal with Tampa Bay on March 20th. One month later it was announced that Brady’s long-term teammate, Rob Gronkowski, was coming out of retirement and had been traded from the Patriots to Tampa Bay. Brady and “Gronk” spent nine seasons together with the Patriots, and Gronk caught 78 touchdown passes from Brady—more than any other receiver. “Rob has played his entire career alongside Tom Brady and their accomplishments speak for themselves - together they have developed the type of chemistry on and off the field that is crucial to success,” said the Buccaneers general manager, Jason Licht. When asked if he and Brady had ever discussed playing together again, Gronkowski recalled a conversation the two had had a few months earlier. “If there's the right opportunity out there. ...There's a possible chance that I'd love to reconnect,” Gronkowski recalled telling Brady. “[Brady] was all fired up and juiced up about it.”
Business Take Aways
NFL teams will be spending up to $198.2 million apiece on on-the-field talent during the 2020 season, and millions on top of that for coaches, managers, and other front office staff. How can teams ensure that these dollars are well spent? And what can companies learn from the high stakes world of NFL talent management?
1. Hire virtually
Evaluating talent and predicting future performance are challenging tasks in person, and all the more problematic when done remotely. In the business world, the current pandemic has caused many organizations to implement a hiring freeze. But when it comes to important leadership positions and super talented prospects, hiring continues.
Similar to the NFL, this hiring has to take place virtually. And the shortcomings of virtual hiring in the business world are not dissimilar—technology fails, the impersonal nature of remote interactions, and the challenges associated with building a robust candidate pool virtually. Just like the college player trying to switch from QB to wide receiver, career switchers may find it hard to gain traction in the virtual hiring environment. The same holds for individuals coming from smaller organizations with less name recognition. Recruiters should recognize these shortcomings and work to find ways to ensure they are “seeing” these non-traditional candidates. No one wants to miss out on a Jerry Rice. Stars from smaller organizations might actually be more portable than stars from big name firms. After all, they had to become stars relying a lot more on themselves not the resources, reputations, and capabilities of big firms.
Many organizations were already employing virtual hiring tools in some form as a way to reach a broader candidate pool in a cost-effective way. According to a Society for Human Resource Management survey, 84 percent of organizations are using social media as a recruitment tool, and 43 percent are using these sites to screen candidates. LinkedIn continues to be the most popular social media tool, but organizations also report using Facebook, Twitter, professional association sites, and Google+.
Virtual interviews can take the same format as in-person sessions and should involve the same preparation (e.g., background research and question lists) and legal considerations. Question lists should be compiled in advance and in connection with HR and legal departments—virtual interviews leave a “digital footprint,” and thus any mistakes can have a lasting impact. Reference checks need to be done as in normal hiring situations—recognizing that tracking down referees make take more time and effort.
Using recruiters can be a double-edged sword, especially in the current scenario as recruiters may push a prospect harder given their financial incentive. However, with a recruiter that is trusted and valued, who has successfully worked with the firm for a significant period of time, the hiring firms can leverage their insight of candidates to increase hiring success. Recruiters, like scouts and agents in the NFL, see a wide variety of candidates regularly and continuously. Their ability to identify potential cross-over skills is something that could be valuable in the current conditions; skills that are difficult to showcase in an interview, especially a virtual one.
Another value-add of recruiters is that they can translate the employment market for the employer. In the current NFL situation, agents have been instrumental in sending teams videos, live streams, comparative statistics, and profiles of their clients.
2. Hire complementary stars to build a high-performing team
There is no such thing as a truly individual performance in a team sport; someone needs to be able to catch the ball thrown by your star QB. Teams need complementary assets and so do companies. When it comes to open positions, some are inherently easier to plug and play. Others are less portable. Taking a page from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ book, one way to mitigate this portability risk is to hire members of a team. People who have known each other from prior projects, firms, communities, associations, and boards might have the advantages of long-standing relationships and trust to bond together and make an impact much faster than could a group of people that has to work together for the first time. Given the challenges associated with onboarding in a virtual work world, legally assembling people that have worked together before might bring even more benefits than usual in the current environment.
3. Manage expectations and onboard thoughtfully
Not all stars are portable. And just like the wide receiver relative to the punter—the more interconnected a position is within an organization, the longer it will likely take a new hire to contribute. In today’s virtual world that process may take twice as long. Integrating a new team member involves several aspects including familiarity with systems, knowledge of co-workers, adjusting to the work culture of the firm, and most of all developing processes in harmony with colleagues.
To assist new hires in getting up to speed, firms should consider innovative onboarding ideas such as virtual team building and online meetings. When NFL draft picks join their teams, they will be able to participate in the league’s organized virtual off-season. This will involve virtual workouts and online meetings between coaches and players, individually and in groups. A virtual off-season is certainly not optimal: “We’re going to miss that camaraderie, the badgering that goes back and forth, and the direct communication with the coaches, teammates who lean over and whisper to help out on a play,” said John Schneider, the Seattle Seahawks’ general manager. But the Seahawks plan to organize online sessions by position and by team (offense, defence, special teams), with head coach Pete Carroll dropping in on meetings throughout the day—just like he would if they were all together at the team’s facility in Renton, Washington.
4. Leadership matters
You can have great players on the field, but if you don’t also have great talent vertically, at the owner, general manager and coaching positions, you will not achieve the results you want. In the NFL, 68.2 percent of the variance in team performance can be attributed to leadership. Leadership is also a critical factor in the business world. Every successful organization has effective leadership; it is a key driver for growth, and particularly for development and innovation. At the very least effective leadership is needed for organizational stability in tough times. And now more than ever effective leadership matters.
Conclusion
Individual stardom is a team sport. It is not enough to think about hiring talented individuals, companies need to think about how those stars fit into their organization as a whole. The War for Talent continues even during these uncertain times. And companies are becoming more and more creative in accessing, selecting, interviewing, onboarding, developing, and engaging these real talented people in the unreal virtual world.